Lots of speculation as to where Zack Greinke would sign and for how much? Including myself, who really thought this past Tuesday on the Jimmy The K Sports Show that there was strong indications in and around the market that he would resign with the Dodgers. The first part I will admit I'll eat crow on for some time now, but I did speculate that he would get in the range of 34 million and guess what? Low and behold he signed with the Diamondbacks for a 6 year/206 million deal the latter coming out to be about 34.5 million, although speculation is that this deal comes with some deferels. So all in all, what does this say about the rest of the major league free agents waiting to sign? What does the Price/Greinke deals do to the free agent market?
First and foremost, what these two signings do is it drives up the market for the other available free agents, most notably, the pitchers. The remaining top free agent pitcher out there now is Johnny Cueto. So what does this do to his market? It allows his market to skyrocket, what we all thought would be let's say a 5 year/100 million dollar deal now skyrockets way past that. My initial reaction now is that Cueto signs for NO LESS than 180 million over a 5 year period. Industry leaders feel like and I would have to agree with them is that he could sign a deal with the Dodgers in the vicinity of 6 years and roughly 198 to 203 million dollars. Let's look at these top 3 pitchers and how they faired last year:
David Price- 32G, 220.1IP, WHIP- 1.08, BAA- .230, ERA- 2.45 (Boston 7/217)
Zack Greinke- 32G, 222.2IP, WHIP- 0.84, BAA- .187, ERA- 1.66 (Diamondbacks 6/206)
Johnny Cueto- 32G, 212IP, WHIP- 1.13, BAA- .232, ERA- 3.44 (Projection- Dodgers 6/200)
Second, this helps out the other available free agents NO MATTER the positon. As all available positions will be looking for a PAYDAY and not the candy bar type either. The agents are like shark investors in the Shark Tank just waiting to pounce on the BEST available deal. Let's take Chris Davis for instance, he has lead the league in homeruns over the last 3 seasons and is now a free agent. His agent Mr. Scott Boras is like always looking for a big payday for Davis. The only problem with agents is they sell the good and leave out the bad. Who wouldn't right? The downside to Davis is his strikeout rate is at his highest even when his homerun numbers are up. Boras though will settle at nothing less than anywhere in the 100-150 million dollar range for Davis.
Lastly, the Winter Meetings are starting next week and you can bet there will be some wheeling and dealing amongst teams looking to improve their rosters. What the market now does thanks to the Price/Greinke deal is it drives up what you have to be willing to part with to get a high level impact pitcher/player. Let's look at a for instance again. Let's say that the San Diego Padres want to trade James Shields(reports amongst industry leaders are they are looking to unload him). What the Padres want now significantly goes up? Let's say the Rangers want a deal with Shields now the asking price now maybe that of a Holland, Gallo, Profar, and Mazara. You might look at that scenario and laugh, but with the Price/Greinke deal and Cueto possibly NOT signing for less than 200 million that's what a deal might look like for a return from let's say the Rangers.
With all of this being said, you can see that the pitching market does NOT just drive up the market for pitching but for the hitters market as well. Now that Greinke/Price are OFF the market you can bet that no matter who signs now will get a HUGE PAYDAY. In this day and time it is about time that the MLB Players Association looks at a salary cap. Without a salary cap you can bet those numbers will continue to go up. So what are your thoughts on the MLB Market now? Send questions and comments to:
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